This is the most fluid Republican Primary since Nixon was picked in 1968. It has been amazing to watch. The media loves that Republicans haven’t picked their candidate before one vote is cast, and the media also loves tearing down every candidate that seems to be picking up any steam. I think, at this point, that Romney is most likely, but there is a path to the Presidency for five of the candidates. Let’s take it state by state and I will add some concluding thoughts:

Iowa (January 3):

Mike Huckabee is now up double-digits in Iowa, but I’m not sure his campaign can withstand the beating it is being put through. Romney has a very strong organization there and has spent millions and millions of dollars there. McCain’s endorsement will do him some good, but with Thompson staking more value in Iowa and Giuliani still a factor, McCain’s fortune in the state is uncertain.

I expect Huckabee’s strong support among Evangelicals, the unlikelihood of the large majority of his supporter’s to switch their votes, and Huck’s newly upgraded staff to maintain his Iowa lead.

Mike Huckabee: 30 Romney: 26 McCain: 18 Giuliani: 14 Thompson: 11 Paul: 3

New Hampshire (January 8):

I believe McCain will win. I expect a major showing from Senator McCain. His anti-earmark record will overcome his aggressive military views. NH voters will at least respect that McCain is not an aggressive amatuer like Romney or Giuliani. Huckabee made a smart move in trying to appeal to NH’s anti-war voters with his article in Foreign Policy. That will bring him up to double-digits in the state. Paul should pull a lot of votes away as well. From who is something for the exit polls to decide. Romney will do will as will Giuliani. But Giuliani will come in third. This will severely hamper his campaign.

McCain: 25 Romney: 22 Giuliani: 20 Huckabee: 15 Thompson: 10 Paul: 8

Michigan (January 15):

Romney and Giuliani will regain relevancy in this state.

Romney: 28 Giuliani: 23 McCain: 20 Huckabee: 16 Thompson: 9 Paul: 4

South Carolina (January 19):

Thompson will drop out after South Carolina. He will then endorse McCain. Huck will do well here. I expect South Carolina to be the biggest early primary state for the GOP. It will have major significance.

McCain: 25 Huckabee: 20 Thompson: 14 Giuliani: 12 Romney: 12

Florida (January 26):

Giuliani will do well here. I think Romney will have to drop out following Florida.

Giuliani: 32 McCain: 28 Huckabee: 22 Romney:18

I’m sorry my comments on the states was shallow. Its a result of a) I am more interested in the Dems b)The GOP race is such a mess.

The race is more dependent on Iowa and NH than their Democratic counterpart’s.

I obviously, over the course of going on a state-by-state basis, changed my views on Romney’s chances. I think we will have a three-way race between McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee going into Feb. 5. You will see Giuliani take the Northeast, Huck take the bible-belt and McCain take the Midwest. Whoever does worst out of McCain or Huck will drop out and endorse the other one and we will have a real battle on our hands.

Obviously, things will change and I will post next week with probably an entirely different view of the race. No matter what, it should be an exciting month.