The race is really heating up here in Iowa and much has changed, especially on the Republican side. Here are my thoughts:

Democrats:

Obama and Edwards have all the momentum at this point. While certainly any one of the big three can come in first, I really feel as though Obama has the biggest groundswell of support, while Edwards has the hearts of many Iowans who he’s won over. Hillary is starting to lag behind. I would not be surprised if, as Iowans often do, she comes in first as the experience candidate, but at this point, I believe she will come in third.

Here are some pros and cons of the candidates here on the ground:

Obama: pros-People like him because he is a unifier. As it is easy for Independents and Republicans to caucus he will get plenty of that support. They also see him as a straight shooter. He is just plain inspiring.  cons- The health care distortion put on him by Clinton hurt. Also the idea that some believe he doesn’t have enough “seasoning” in Washington.

Clinton: pros- Long record of public service. She’s a woman. People like her husband. cons- Unelectable, divisive, blast from the past.

Edwards: pros- He’s been in Iowa forever. His anger taps into the feelings of many Democrats. cons-Unelectable, oily, a completely different candidate from what he was in 2004.

Here are my numbers:

Obama 32 Edwards 27 Clinton 25 Biden 8 Richardson 6 Dodd 2

Republicans:

Huckabee has faltered. I don’t think his organization will get enough of his supporters to the caucus. Though his supporters are committed, the money of Romney will be too much. McCain will surprise many. The foreign policy blunders will move some of his support to McCain. If Huckabee has to drop out, he will endorse McCain, and we will either see McCain/Huckabee, or McCain/Pawlenty.

Here are my numbers:

Romney 28 McCain 26 Huckabee 22 Giuliani 10 Thompson 8 Paul 6

McCain and Obama will win NH.

More on that following the caucus.