Republican Debate Liveblog: 8:50 pm

I almost got weepy. That was seriously one of the most touching, American things I have seen in this cycle so far. It was great to see all ten of them on the stage.

Romney got hammered. McCain had a good night and the candidates were so busy hammering Romney, McCain wasn’t hit too hard on taxes. Fred Thompson was great, he looked very thoughtful and had a lot of common sense. Huckabee was doing good, he wasn’t hit too hard and he did a lot of good work on Romney.

I think the big winners were McCain and Thompson. The huge loser was Romney.

 

Republican Debate Liveblog: 8:35 pm

The question on Obama is very interesting. I hope is staff and the Senator use this to their advantage to prop up Obama as the new frontrunner.

I think there were more compliments paid to Obama than detractions.

Obama will nail this out of the park in the debate.

 

Republican Debate Liveblog: 8:15 pm

Charlie Gibson is doing the best job of any moderator in this election cycle so far.

The immigration debate is the biggest example of a Republican base caring more that the rhetoric matches the policies they wish were possible, rather than rhetoric that matches reality.

Also, how do some of these guys (Romney) only include their so called values in about half of all of the issues, and only when its convenient to do so?

Huckabee is smart by keeping shut during all of this.

 

Republican Debate Liveblog

I have just decided to liveblog the debates tonight. Seeing that I’ve started late, I will do a quick wrap-up of the first 45 minutes.

Romney is getting slammed by everyone…but I will say that he is doing a good job of presenting himself as someone who gets things done. He has failed to bring in his anti-establishment theme adequately thus far.

Huckabee slammed Romney big when he said “which one,” when Romney scolded Huck for talking about Romney’s position. (Ironic, huh? Since he’s been slinging all the mud.)

McCain looks great so far, and Thompson is having his best debate so far. He looks smart…like an oaf…but a smart oaf.

Ok…Here I go. The debate is back on.

 

Iowa

The race is really heating up here in Iowa and much has changed, especially on the Republican side. Here are my thoughts:

Democrats:

Obama and Edwards have all the momentum at this point. While certainly any one of the big three can come in first, I really feel as though Obama has the biggest groundswell of support, while Edwards has the hearts of many Iowans who he’s won over. Hillary is starting to lag behind. I would not be surprised if, as Iowans often do, she comes in first as the experience candidate, but at this point, I believe she will come in third.

Here are some pros and cons of the candidates here on the ground:

Obama: pros-People like him because he is a unifier. As it is easy for Independents and Republicans to caucus he will get plenty of that support. They also see him as a straight shooter. He is just plain inspiring.  cons- The health care distortion put on him by Clinton hurt. Also the idea that some believe he doesn’t have enough “seasoning” in Washington.

Clinton: pros- Long record of public service. She’s a woman. People like her husband. cons- Unelectable, divisive, blast from the past.

Edwards: pros- He’s been in Iowa forever. His anger taps into the feelings of many Democrats. cons-Unelectable, oily, a completely different candidate from what he was in 2004.

Here are my numbers:

Obama 32 Edwards 27 Clinton 25 Biden 8 Richardson 6 Dodd 2

Republicans:

Huckabee has faltered. I don’t think his organization will get enough of his supporters to the caucus. Though his supporters are committed, the money of Romney will be too much. McCain will surprise many. The foreign policy blunders will move some of his support to McCain. If Huckabee has to drop out, he will endorse McCain, and we will either see McCain/Huckabee, or McCain/Pawlenty.

Here are my numbers:

Romney 28 McCain 26 Huckabee 22 Giuliani 10 Thompson 8 Paul 6

McCain and Obama will win NH.

More on that following the caucus.

 

Laying it Out: The Republicans

This is the most fluid Republican Primary since Nixon was picked in 1968. It has been amazing to watch. The media loves that Republicans haven’t picked their candidate before one vote is cast, and the media also loves tearing down every candidate that seems to be picking up any steam. I think, at this point, that Romney is most likely, but there is a path to the Presidency for five of the candidates. Let’s take it state by state and I will add some concluding thoughts:

Iowa (January 3):

Mike Huckabee is now up double-digits in Iowa, but I’m not sure his campaign can withstand the beating it is being put through. Romney has a very strong organization there and has spent millions and millions of dollars there. McCain’s endorsement will do him some good, but with Thompson staking more value in Iowa and Giuliani still a factor, McCain’s fortune in the state is uncertain.

I expect Huckabee’s strong support among Evangelicals, the unlikelihood of the large majority of his supporter’s to switch their votes, and Huck’s newly upgraded staff to maintain his Iowa lead.

Mike Huckabee: 30 Romney: 26 McCain: 18 Giuliani: 14 Thompson: 11 Paul: 3

New Hampshire (January 8):

I believe McCain will win. I expect a major showing from Senator McCain. His anti-earmark record will overcome his aggressive military views. NH voters will at least respect that McCain is not an aggressive amatuer like Romney or Giuliani. Huckabee made a smart move in trying to appeal to NH’s anti-war voters with his article in Foreign Policy. That will bring him up to double-digits in the state. Paul should pull a lot of votes away as well. From who is something for the exit polls to decide. Romney will do will as will Giuliani. But Giuliani will come in third. This will severely hamper his campaign.

McCain: 25 Romney: 22 Giuliani: 20 Huckabee: 15 Thompson: 10 Paul: 8

Michigan (January 15):

Romney and Giuliani will regain relevancy in this state.

Romney: 28 Giuliani: 23 McCain: 20 Huckabee: 16 Thompson: 9 Paul: 4

South Carolina (January 19):

Thompson will drop out after South Carolina. He will then endorse McCain. Huck will do well here. I expect South Carolina to be the biggest early primary state for the GOP. It will have major significance.

McCain: 25 Huckabee: 20 Thompson: 14 Giuliani: 12 Romney: 12

Florida (January 26):

Giuliani will do well here. I think Romney will have to drop out following Florida.

Giuliani: 32 McCain: 28 Huckabee: 22 Romney:18

I’m sorry my comments on the states was shallow. Its a result of a) I am more interested in the Dems b)The GOP race is such a mess.

The race is more dependent on Iowa and NH than their Democratic counterpart’s.

I obviously, over the course of going on a state-by-state basis, changed my views on Romney’s chances. I think we will have a three-way race between McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee going into Feb. 5. You will see Giuliani take the Northeast, Huck take the bible-belt and McCain take the Midwest. Whoever does worst out of McCain or Huck will drop out and endorse the other one and we will have a real battle on our hands.

Obviously, things will change and I will post next week with probably an entirely different view of the race. No matter what, it should be an exciting month.

 

Oh Bill

I love Bill Clinton, but the only thing worse than having to listen to another 8 years of Clinton excuses is Thompson, Giuliani or Romney.